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　　Leaseurope provides the best gauge of performance across the European leasing and automotive rental industry. The breadth of its influence as a platform can be seen in the fact that it has member associations in 33 countries, which include affiliates in Morocco and Tunisia.

　　

　　歐洲租賃協(xié)會(huì)為歐洲租賃和汽車租賃業(yè)做了最佳的測評。從歐洲租賃協(xié)會(huì)影響的廣度來看，他的會(huì)員遍布33個(gè)國家，其中包括來自摩洛哥和突尼斯的企業(yè)的子公司。

　　

　　Leaseurope claims to represent some 1,400 leasing businesses and 500 short-term rental companies employing around 40,000 people, representing more than 90% of the European leasing market.

　　

　　歐洲租賃協(xié)會(huì)代表1,400家租賃企業(yè)和500家短期租賃公司，40,000為雇員，這些數(shù)據(jù)能夠代表90%以上的歐洲租賃市場。

　　

　　Leaseurope Index

　　

　　歐洲租賃指數(shù)

　　

　　An important gauge of leasing performance in Europe is the quarterly Leaseurope Index. This tracks the performance of a group of major European lessors across seven key indicators, covering total portfolio and new business volumes (NBV) along with financial ratios concerning profitability, cost/income, cost of risk, return on assets (RoA) and return on equity (RoE).

　　

　　每季度的歐洲租賃指數(shù)是說明租賃市場情況的重要指標(biāo)。該指數(shù)通過7個(gè)關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)追蹤一大批歐洲主要租賃公司的經(jīng)營狀況，其中包括總投資組合、新增業(yè)務(wù)量（NBV）和包括成本收入比、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成本、資產(chǎn)收益(RoA)和凈資產(chǎn)收益（RoE）在內(nèi)的財(cái)務(wù)比率。

　　

　　Categories of assets leased include all types of machinery & equipment, cars and light commercial vehicles, trucks and heavy commercial vehicles, and real estate.

　　

　　租賃資產(chǎn)類別包括所有類型的機(jī)械和設(shè)備、汽車、輕型商務(wù)車、卡車。重型商務(wù)車和房地產(chǎn)。

　　

　　The Index for Q4 2015 shows an encouraging trend across all the performance indicators, with improvements in all quarters of 2015 compared to the same quarter the previous year.

　　

　　2015年第四季度指數(shù)所有指標(biāo)都顯示出令人鼓舞的趨勢，2015年各季度都比去年同季度有所提高。

　　

　　Aggregate data, 2015

　　

　　2015年數(shù)據(jù)表

　　

　　Looking at the data on an annual basis, all the indicators improved compared with 2014, indicating a much more positive trend overall for the industry after some lacklustre years. (It should be noted that the comparisons between 2013 and 2014 in the table below contain exceptional outliers regarding pre-tax profit and loan loss provision, due to a large loss provision in an isolated part of the sample in Q3 2013.)

　　

　　年度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2015年所有指標(biāo)與2014年相比都有提高，這表明，在多年低迷之后，行業(yè)整體趨勢向好。（應(yīng)該注意到，下表2013年與2014年的比較中，稅前利潤和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)準(zhǔn)備金存在例外，因?yàn)?013年第三季度樣本中大額風(fēng)險(xiǎn)準(zhǔn)備金被獨(dú)立出來）。

　　

　　The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) gives average year-on-year growth rates and helps even out any unusual figures in specific periods. This measure shows progress generally in the right direction in all areas from 2010 to 2015.

　　

　　復(fù)合年增長率（CAGR）給出了平均同比增長率，甚至幫助找出特定時(shí)期的任何異常的數(shù)據(jù)。這一方法顯示2010年至2015年各領(lǐng)域的進(jìn)展。

　　

　　Operating income in 2015 amounted to €10.2 billion, an impressive increase of 8.7% on 2014. The five-year CAGR for operating income is also a satisfactory 3.2%.

　　

　　2015年?duì)I業(yè)收入總計(jì)102億歐元，較2014年上漲8.7%。5年?duì)I業(yè)收入CAGR為3.2%，同樣可喜。

　　

　　As mentioned, the large increases in aggregate profit figures for Q4 2015 and the full year 2015 are due mainly to loan loss provisions decreasing substantially from previously high levels, leading to further cheering CAGR totals of a 13% increase in pre-tax profit and an 8.3% fall in loan loss provision.

　　

　　正如前面提到的，由于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)準(zhǔn)備金大幅降低，2015年第四季度及2015全年總利潤增長幅度大，導(dǎo)致稅前利潤C(jī)AGR進(jìn)一步提高13%，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)準(zhǔn)備金CAGR下降8.3%。

　　

　　Meanwhile, NBV surged nearly 11% in 2015 to just under €94 billion which, despite following another strong uplift of 9% year-on-year in 2014, gives a five-year CAGR of only 1.2%. However, as elsewhere the trend is definitely upward and progress such as this is not so bad considering the economic ups and downs experienced globally and across Europe.

　　

　　同時(shí)，2015年NBV飆升近11%，不到940億歐元。盡管2014年同比上漲9%，漲幅也較大，但5年CAGR僅為1.2%。然而，和其他地方一樣都是上漲趨勢，但是考慮到全球和歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢波動(dòng)，取得這樣的結(jié)果也并不糟糕。

　　

　　Annual aggregate data, 2011-15

　　

　　年度總數(shù)據(jù)，2011-15

　　

　　The positive trend over time is revealed by the year-on-year growth rates in the following chart (excluding the extreme fluctuations in loan loss provision and pre-tax profit), headed by the steady rise in operating income and the more recent surge in NBV.

　　

　　下圖以營業(yè)收入和NBV（除了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)準(zhǔn)備金和稅前利潤的極端波動(dòng)）為首的同比增長率或是穩(wěn)步增長或是大幅增長，顯示了這段時(shí)間積極發(fā)展趨勢。

　　

　　Annual aggregate, change on previous year

　　

　　年度總趨勢 ，相比于上一年

　　

　　The weighted average ratios for 2013 are distorted by the extreme outlier values already mentioned, but a comparison between 2014 and 2015 ratios shows some significant improvements.

　　

　　前面提到，2013年平均加權(quán)比率受異常數(shù)據(jù)影響而失真，但是2014年和2015年比率的比較顯示巨大進(jìn)步。

　　

　　The profitability ratio rose from 32% to nearer 42%, aided by the substantial reduction in aggregate loan loss provisions from previously high levels. This meant the average cost of risk declined from 0.7% in 2014 to 0.5% in 2015.

　　

　　受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)準(zhǔn)備金大幅降低的影響，盈利能力比率從32%上升至近42%。這意味著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成本從2014年的0.7%降至2015年的0.5%。

　　

　　There were strong improvements in the yearly RoA and RoE ratios, jumping from 1.3% to 1.7% and from 123 to 170, respectively.

　　

　　年度RoA和RoE比率有明顯提高，分別從1.3%躍至1.7%，從123增至170。

　　

　　These positive growth trajectories indicate that conditions for lessors in 2015 were undoubtedly favourable compared with still hesitant economic growth, demonstrating the leasing industry’s resilient business model.

　　

　　這種積極的發(fā)展軌跡表明，2015年租賃公司經(jīng)營狀況無疑好于目前起伏的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，這表明租賃業(yè)是具有彈性的商業(yè)模式。

　　

　　Weighted average ratios, 2015 vs 2014

　　

　　平均加權(quán)比率，2015&2014

　　

　　Good start to 2016

　　

　　2016良好開局

　　

　　The figures revealed in the Leaseurope Index for Q1 2016 are that key indicators remain strong.

　　

　　歐洲租賃指標(biāo)顯示2016年第一季度關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)仍然強(qiáng)勁。

　　

　　NBV increased by 8.8% and total pre-tax profit of the participating companies saw double-digit growth of 12.7% compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

　　

　　NBV同比上漲8.8%，參與調(diào)查公司的總稅前利潤呈兩位數(shù)增長，較去年同期上漲12.7%。

　　

　　The portfolio of outstanding contracts grew by 2.0% and risk-weighted assets increased by 3.0%.

　　

　　未完成合同上漲2.0%，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)上漲3.0%.

　　

　　Strong profitability and declining loan loss provisions contributed to the continuation of the positive trend in RoA and RoE indicators, at respectively 1.9% and 184.

　　

　　強(qiáng)勢的盈利能力和下降的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)準(zhǔn)備金有利于RoA和RoE指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)的積極發(fā)展趨勢，分別為1.9%和184。

　　

　　However, operating income exhibited much slower growth in Q1 2016 compared to that seen in 2014 and 2015, while operating expenses increased at a greater rate. This makes the cost/income ratio the exception amongst otherwise improving weighted average ratios.

　　

　　然而，2016年第一季度營業(yè)收入較2014年和2015年，增長緩慢，但是營業(yè)支出上漲比率較大。這影響了成本收入比率和異常數(shù)據(jù)，從而使平均加權(quán)比率上升。

　　

　　The Leaseurope view is that the prospect of income growth slowing whilst costs escalate could be a cause for concern in the near future, although strong new business growth, as well as increasing portfolio levels, suggests that the leasing industry is well placed to meet any challenges that the rest of the year may bring.

　　

　　歐洲租賃聯(lián)盟認(rèn)為，盡管新增業(yè)務(wù)量增長勢頭強(qiáng)勁，投資組合水平提高，但近期收益增長緩慢成本逐步攀升仍會(huì)引起警覺。這表明租賃業(yè)準(zhǔn)備好了迎接今年剩下時(shí)間可能存在的任何挑戰(zhàn)。

　　

　　Aggregate data, Q1 changes

　　

　　綜合數(shù)據(jù)，第一季度變化

　　

　　Comparison of Q1 weighted average ratios

　　

　　第一季度平均加權(quán)比率比較

　　

　　The industry view of prospects for 2016

　　

　　2016年行業(yè)前景

　　

　　The results of the latest half-yearly European Business Confidence Survey, conducted in December 2015 by Leaseurope and specialist international equipment leasing and asset finance consultancy Invigors EMEA, highlight an overall optimistic start to 2016 for European leasing.

　　

　　歐洲商業(yè)信心調(diào)查是在2015年12月由歐洲租賃行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)和國際設(shè)備租賃和資產(chǎn)融資咨詢公司—Invigors EMEA共同進(jìn)行的。調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示2016年歐洲租賃業(yè)開局整體向好。

　　

　　Providing forecasts for H1 2016, respondents expect growth to continue in a strong vein, and the balance of opinion on many other key indicators is generally favourable. These include:

　　

　　調(diào)查對象預(yù)測2016年上半年增長前景存在持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁的跡象，對于其他關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)的意見業(yè)非常積極。如下：

　　

　　Nearly 45% of respondents are more optimistic about the prospects for their business during this period, while only 11% think their business prospects will worsen.

　　

　　近45%的受訪者對于2016年上半年業(yè)務(wù)前景持積極態(tài)度，而僅有11%的受訪者認(rèn)為業(yè)務(wù)前景堪憂。

　　

　　85% of those surveyed expect new business volumes to increase, while just 5% anticipate a decline.

　　

　　85%的受訪者認(rèn)為新增業(yè)務(wù)量會(huì)上升，5%的受訪者認(rèn)為下降。

　　

　　65% of respondents anticipate that net profit in their organizations will increase over the period, with 18% forecasting a decline.

　　

　　65%的受訪者認(rèn)為其公司凈利潤2016年上半年將增加，18%的受訪者認(rèn)為會(huì)下降。

　　

　　However, 51% expect margins will decrease in their organizations, an increase on the previous survey, though a further 36% anticipate no change.

　　

　　然而，51%的受訪者認(rèn)為其公司的利潤會(huì)下降，而在之前的調(diào)查中他們認(rèn)為利潤會(huì)上升。36%的受訪者認(rèn)為利潤不會(huì)變化。

　　

　　One interesting trend is that over 50% of those surveyed now think that competition from new entrants is more likely in their home market, a perception that has increased steadily over recent surveys. Expectations of merger and acquisition activity remain at the level seen in the previous survey, with 41% of respondents predicting an increase in H1 2016 compared to 56% who anticipate no change.

　　

　　還有一個(gè)有趣的趨勢是超過50%的受訪者認(rèn)為與新市場參與者的競爭多來自國內(nèi)市場，而持這種看法的人在最近一些調(diào)查中逐步增多。對于并購活動(dòng)的預(yù)測與之前的調(diào)查一致，41%的受訪者認(rèn)為2016年上半年并購活動(dòng)會(huì)增加，56%的受訪者認(rèn)為不會(huì)改變。

　　

　　At the time of writing this report, towards the close of the first half of the year, the positive expectations had looked to be well founded. Meanwhile, there has been some encouraging economic data for GDP in the EU which shows growth has been near to 2% over the four quarters to Q1 2016 – not great, but showing steady improvement over the last four to five years. Unemployment across the EU has been gradually falling since it peaked in Q2 2013, and over the same period the trend in the number of employed persons has been upward.

　　

　　這篇報(bào)告完成之時(shí)正好臨近上半年結(jié)束，積極的預(yù)期得到印證。同時(shí)，歐盟GDP數(shù)據(jù)讓人振奮，到2016年第一季度為止，四個(gè)季度的GDP增長近2%，雖然不高，但能保持4/5年的穩(wěn)步增長。歐盟失業(yè)率在2013年第二季度問頂后逐漸下降，同時(shí)，就業(yè)人數(shù)有所上升。

　　

　　However, the impact of the shock result of the referendum in the UK on 23 June to leave the EU will be far-reaching across financial markets.

　　

　　然而，6月23日英國脫歐的公投結(jié)果的沖擊，將對歐盟金融市場產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。

　　

　　資料來源：懷特克拉克集團(tuán)

　　

　　翻譯：中國租賃聯(lián)盟、天津?yàn)I海融資租賃研究院  張  媛

　　

　　編審：中國租賃聯(lián)盟、天津?yàn)I海融資租賃研究院  季健霞

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